The Trump shock

Donald Trump returns to the White House. What this does to democracy, the economy, society in the USA - and to the rest of the world.

On Tuesday evening, anything was still possible - for example, that a woman would become President of the USA for the first time. That democracy will stand up, dust itself off and move on. On Wednesday morning, the USA map was bright red and the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman was relieved: “ Hallelujah! » And Donald Trump, who was already giving a victory speech at half past eight our time, when his victory was foreseeable but not yet official, absurdly said that he would “heal” America.

The man who is a criminally convicted felon and civilly convicted sex offender, who four years ago did not acknowledge his defeat, refused to give up power and instigated a violent coup, who lied 30,000 times in his first presidency, whose rhetoric was racist , misogynistic and insulting, who spreads conspiracy theories and said, to paraphrase Hitler, that illegal immigrants were “ poisoning the blood of our country ,” this man became the 47th President of the USA chosen.

And even before you know when all the votes will be counted, it is clear: it is a clear victory.

How is that possible?

It is still too early to answer this question conclusively. But there are clues that help with understanding. According to the first results in the election day surveys, more people than ever before said that they were doing worse economically than they were four years ago - and they are hoping for change from Trump. But what's interesting is that even more people are worried about democracy - and that half of them are Trump voters . This shows how successful Trump's lie about the stolen election and the narrative of the broken system have been in people's minds over the last four years.

Trump bet on fear and won - fear of immigrants, of economic uncertainty, of a system that cannot be trusted. And his voters also used their votes to speak out against established institutions and conventions. This is a turning point and a sign that it is no longer possible to agree on a common basis that forms the foundation of American society.

What does this starting point mean for democracy, for the economy, for society and for the rest of the world? We take a closer look at these questions.

Democracy: On the way to an authoritarian system

Trump's second presidency will test US democracy like no other since the Civil War in the 19th century.

He would govern according to a simple motto, he said in his victory speech in Florida: "Promises made, promises kept."

These are bleak prospects.

Trump moved into the White House largely unprepared for his first term in office. He ran the country in a chaotic manner, which limited his ability to act. Members of the government opposed him at crucial moments, citing their oath to the Constitution. For example, they prevented him from using the military against demonstrators or having ballot boxes confiscated.

But this time things are different. Trump will sit in the presidential chair, conscious of his power and prepared, and will gather around him people whom he will select primarily based on one criterion: unconditional loyalty. He announced his plans under the title Agenda 47 and at many election campaign appearances. If he implements his plans, it will likely shake US democracy to its foundations.

He will fire thousands of government workers and replace them with people willing to implement his agenda, even if it means violating the law and the constitution. By bringing the bureaucracy under control, Trump is taking one of the first steps towards an authoritarian system. In doing so, he guarantees that no one in his government and administration will stop him anymore.

Trump has already announced that he will take uncompromising action against his political opponents, whom he is already calling “enemies within” and “vermin” that “must be removed at the roots.” In doing so, he is deepening the rifts in the country even further. And it lays the ground for violence, the prerequisite of which is the dehumanization of the opponent. It is already clear today that Trump will govern not with the Democrats but against them, and they will be unable to do anything about it unless they win at least a majority in the House of Representatives.

The media will only be able to fulfill their function as fourth power to a limited extent at most. Trump has largely escaped your control. In his first presidential campaign, he discredited media workers as enemies of the state and complained about the alleged unfair treatment they received. His electorate has long stopped listening to media that critically questions politics. Anyone who criticizes Trump is considered biased and part of the “fake news media” . At one of his last campaign appearances, he fantasized about shooting female journalists and said it didn't bother him.

The only institution that could slow Trump down in his second term is the judiciary. He has plans for her too. He wants to instruct the Ministry of Justice to begin investigations against allegedly left-wing radical prosecutors and their employees. He plans to appoint a hundred new US prosecutors he likes. He will also have the opportunity to appoint additional judges to the Supreme Court, the majority of which is already in his line.

Trump also wants to use his power as president to pardon the Capitol stormers and remove the special prosecutor who is investigating him on this issue. Even an attempted coup in the USA would have no consequences.

None of this is secret. Trump put his plans on the table long ago and never acted as if he wanted to support the institutions and respect the Constitution. The citizens of the proud, two-hundred-year-old US democracy knew what he was planning when they elected him.